U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: It is too early to predict the impact of the auto strike on the economy. The labor market is cooling, but there are no large-scale layoffs. There is no sign that the economy is in recession. We will pay close attention to oil prices and oil production.
The Saudi energy minister said OPEC was working to keep oil markets stable and improve global energy security without targeting any specific crude price level.
The European Union will debate the 12th round of sanctions against Russia, and new EU sanctions against Russia may be introduced as early as October. Polish proposals should include ban on purchases of Russian diamonds and LPG
Swedish Nordic Bank
The current overall situation is that Saudi Arabia and Russia firmly control the crude oil market, the global market is either balanced or in deficit, and inventories of crude oil and crude oil products remain low. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and inventory, we are still facing a tight supply market, so the room for downward oil prices should be limited. It’s very possible that we could see Brent prices above $100/barrel, and it’s now about $5 away from that level, with just a little market turmoil to get there. At present, the benchmark price of some oil products has exceeded US$100/barrel. Although Brent oil looks set to reach the $100/barrel level soon, we are skeptical about further price increases to $110-120/barrel, as demand for oil products may gradually be affected and start to weaken. Unless of course we get some serious supply disruptions, but Saudi Arabia now has a lot of reserve capacity to deal with any supply disruptions. What deserves attention in the future is oil product demand, oil product crack spreads and oil product inventories. At present, world economic activity is more likely to slow down than recover, and coupled with the impact of rapidly rising interest rates over the past 12-18 months, an oil price of US$85-95 per barrel may be more suitable than US$110-120.
Market Analyst Fiona Cincotta
Oil prices continued to rise on Monday, extending previous gains. Oil prices have been boosted by expectations that the supply gap could widen in the coming quarters as Saudi Arabia extends its production-cut deal and optimism about Asian crude demand continues to surround the market. In addition to the implementation of economic measures, recent economic data in Asia have also performed better than the intervention period, increasing people’s hopes that the economy is improving. At the same time, OPEC and the International Energy Agency also believe that future crude oil demand will be stronger than expected. Traders will be closely watching central bank decisions this week, with any sign that the Federal Reserve may be ending its tightening cycle will be viewed by the market as a positive for oil prices. Crude oil is currently extending its gains and remains above a steep uptrend line. Prices remain in overbought territory, so buyers should remain cautious as a pullback or consolidation in oil prices is possible. Buying is likely to continue to support oil prices up to the resistance level of 93.2, the November high, with support below at 86.35, followed by the August high of 84.6.
Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, an energy information service agency
1. Although the world is facing the impact of economic recession, oil demand is unexpectedly strong. In the past few months, gasoline and diesel prices have reached above US$120/barrel. However, crude oil has only remained around US$90/barrel recently, indicating that there has been a redistribution of interests from refiners to producers and not to end users. Feel the corresponding impact.
2. China’s attendance at the World Petroleum Conference will definitely attract attention from all parties. Although there are certain contradictions between China’s macroeconomic data and oil demand, China’s oil demand has continued to hit new highs recently because China’s economy has become more consumption-oriented and is filling strategic oil reserves.
3. Regarding whether Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman will increase oil production, although increasing production may be able to meet global demand, Saudi Arabia would rather keep the existing oil supply stable to ensure macroeconomic stability.
4. As the world gradually shifts to sustainable energy consumption, including the hot trend of clean energy such as electric vehicles, oil-producing countries will try to tap the highest profits at this stage, provided that they strive to obtain more energy before other economies gradually phase out fossil fuels. More income.
5. Brent crude oil prices may reach $100/barrel by Halloween, and may then experience a brief decline due to strong global oil demand and hedge fund concerns about the macro environment.
The upward momentum in crude oil prices seems to be getting stronger, which is reflected in the steepening slope of the increase since June. Crude oil has tested horizontal resistance several times before and has now triggered a breakout of the previous sideways area. This signal started a rally towards last October’s high of 93.00. Crude oil’s upward breakthrough caused the March and May trend lows to form a double bottom structure, indicating that it may continue to rise to 103 in the future. In April this year, the market fell sharply, and then crude oil fell below the support formed by the 89-day moving average. However, last month, crude oil broke through the horizontal resistance level of 83 since January, thus breaking through the fluctuation range for several weeks. Crude oil seems ready to Another horizontal resistance level since last year is tested near 93. If it is successfully broken through, this will also be a key confirmation signal for the resumption of a larger upward trend. This resistance level also coincides with the upper edge of the weekly cloud zone.