Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
WTI crude oil prices are on the verge of falling below $75, hitting their lowest since the July close. The decline has been exacerbated by speculation about an economic slowdown in major oil consumers. Factors contributing to the decline include a surge in U.S. crude inventories and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting further tightening of monetary policy is possible, adding to pressure on the energy sector.
Analysis of crude oil news:
In the European market on Monday (November 13), crude oil prices were trading around US$76.60/barrel. Oil prices rebounded 2% last Friday, and market sentiment has improved. However, what impressed investors more deeply in the past week was the first half. Oil prices fell sharply last week. WTI crude oil once fell by more than 7%. In the past period, investors have noticed that it is difficult for the demand side to bear the oil price that has soared above 90 US dollars. This is directly reflected in the sharp drop in China’s crude oil processing volume from high levels in the face of high oil prices. The U.S. Energy Agency said in In the November monthly report, the market was surprised to significantly reduce crude oil demand in 2023. In the past two months, the crack difference of refined oil products on the futures market has fallen back from the high level, and the monthly difference of crude oil has continued to weaken, which also points to the weakening changes in the supply and demand level of the crude oil market. It is expected that oil prices will rebound in the short term after the sharp decline. However, the market’s expectations for the future of oil prices are still cautious or even pessimistic. The strength of the rebound is expected to be limited. Strong factors are needed to restore investor confidence again. The next key test for oil prices will be whether OPEC+, especially Saudi Arabia, will decide to extend the existing voluntary production cuts to the first quarter of next year or even longer at the OPEC meeting in December. Judging from the current increasingly pessimistic supply and demand scenario in the market, if Saudi Arabia still wants to maintain the stability of the oil market, it seems that it is a must to continue to extend the voluntary production cuts. However, this seems to be a clear disagreement with the previous agreement reached by the United States. This will be The key decision for the next step in oil prices.
Crude oil technical analysis:
Crude oil retraced its negative streak last week, and the three consecutive negative declines in the week gave back nearly half of the previous gains. The weekly trend entered a stage of wide fluctuations, and the long-short tug-of-war was large, and it did not go out of one direction. After the daily Yin line retreated, it was corrected with the rebound of the small Yang line. Partial correction, the daily line is still falling. It’s just that the rhythm is sorting out and correcting while detouring downwards. The 4-hour chart paused after falling continuously, and was corrected with a rebound in late trading last Friday. This week will re-construct the step high point, which is also the critical point for the downward trend. The previous high point of 77.50 was destroyed by the rebound, breaking the weak decline and converting into a shock correction and then decline. At the beginning of the week, focus on the high of 77.70, and there will be no breakthrough at this level. The 4-hour structure will rely on this level to form a shock-step downward channel. On the whole, today’s crude oil operation thinking is based on He Bosheng’s suggestion to rebound low and long, supplemented by rebounding high. The top short-term focus will be on the first-line resistance of 77.7-78.2, and the short-term bottom will focus on the first-line support of 75.5-75.0.
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