Today’s key financial data and events
① To be determined, the United States will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit
② 10:00 Annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China in October
③ 10:00 Annual rate of China’s industrial added value above designated size in October
④ 14:30 France’s ILO unemployment rate in the third quarter
⑤ 15:00 British October CPI monthly rate
⑥ 15:00 British October retail price index monthly rate
⑦ 15:45 French CPI monthly rate in October
⑧ 18:00 Eurozone trade balance after seasonally adjustment in September
⑨ 18:00 Eurozone industrial output monthly rate in September
⑩ 21:30 Canadian wholesale sales monthly rate in September
⑪ 21:30 US October retail sales monthly rate
⑫ 21:30 US October PPI annual rate and monthly rate
⑬ 21:30 US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in November
⑭ 23:00 US September business inventory monthly rate
⑮ 23:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to November 10
⑯ 23:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to November 10
⑰ 23:30 EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the United States for the week to November 10
Crude oil market trend analysis;
Crude oil prices were trading around US$78.11 per barrel in Asia on Wednesday (November 15). After three consecutive weeks of decline, crude oil prices rebounded as traders awaited industry reports this week to confirm whether the recent decline was excessive. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc said renewed demand concerns drove the sell-off, but consumption remained strong throughout the year and could continue that momentum in 2024. Goldman Sachs also lowered its price forecast for next year to $92/barrel. OPEC’s monthly report said “over-exaggerated negative sentiment” has led to lower prices, but recent data points to healthy fundamentals and strong global economic growth. The IEA will report on Tuesday, and two EIA inventory data will be released later this week. Crude oil The week has started back on the defensive, but so far both Brent and WTI have held above key support levels, potentially signaling that the worst of the long-term unwinding is over. Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday after OPEC’s monthly market The report eased concerns about weakening demand as a U.S. investigation into alleged violations of Russian oil sanctions raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. OPEC’s monthly oil market report appeared to push back on demand concerns, citing excessive negativity surrounding demand from the Asian giant , while raising its demand growth forecast for this year and keeping its demand growth forecast for next year unchanged. Wang Tianfa believes that oil prices may have bottomed out after falling about 4% last week and recording three consecutive weeks of declines for the first time since May. “Given the weakening oil prices over the past few weeks, Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely to continue voluntary supply cuts next year. Therefore, this should limit downside potential
Crude oil technical analysis;
Crude oil rebounded and closed higher yesterday. The daily line closed with a small positive line, forming a double positive rebound. Combined with the cross K line last Friday, the daily line slightly started to stabilize and rebounded higher. The continuous consolidation in the small cycle stabilized the support around 75.0. In addition, for two consecutive days, the crude oil price rebounded and closed higher. It failed to fall below the low in the first trading day, so that the short-term weakness was not extended, but the rhythm of seesawing and oscillation appeared. In the 4-hour chart, it held the mid-track and continued to rise, breaking through the small resistance point of 77.7, forming a small cycle rebound and rise. At present, the structure of the 4-hour chart is biased towards further rebound, relying on the middle rail as a support point to be bullish first. It depends on how the market outlook changes. It is currently a rebound correction in the downward trend. Combine space and structure to determine whether the market outlook is a reversal or correction. Changes in direction will occur as space and form change. Crude oil may enter a correction stage in the short term, and there are opportunities for both long and short positions to get stuck. On the whole, today’s crude oil operation thinking: Wang Tianfa recommends that the top focus on the first-line resistance of 79.0-80.0 in the short term, and the bottom short-term focus on the first-line support of 76.0-75.0.
Disclaimer: Views shared are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, and you must be responsible for any profits or losses.
