WTI fell late in New York trading on Wednesday on U.S. data showing a build in crude stockpiles, record production and concerns over falling oil demand in Asia. WTI was trading at $76.50 a barrel, down 2.14%.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Analysis of crude oil news: In the European market on Thursday (November 16), crude oil prices were trading around US$76.10 per barrel, due to a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, record production from the world’s largest oil producer, and demand for Asia. Concerns have intensified, putting pressure on crude oil prices, which fell more than 2% on Wednesday (November 15). Data show that crude oil exports increased last week to a new high since August, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased to a new high since September. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels in the week of November 3 to 421.9 million barrels, far exceeding the 1.8 million barrel increase expected by analysts in the survey. U.S. crude oil inventories were 439 million barrels in the week of November 3, a new high since August, and were 422 million barrels in the week of October 27. U.S. Cushing crude oil inventories stood at 25 million barrels in the week of November 3, a new high since September, and were 21.5 million barrels in the week of October 27. U.S. gasoline inventories were 216 million barrels in the week of November 3 and 223 million barrels in the week of October 27. U.S. distillate inventories were 107 million barrels in the week of November 3 and 111 million barrels in the week of October 27. As global oil demand growth slows and supplies increase, Saudi Arabia may maintain production cuts it started this summer until January next year, or even longer. Oil prices fell further as crude inventories rose, while Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data confirmed earlier Consumer Price Index (PPI) readings. Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) data suggested demand is slowing. The decline in U.S. inflation data has shaken the market. In the short term, oil prices are in trouble and their upside potential seems limited.
Crude oil technical analysis:
Crude oil retreated from the negative line yesterday. It gave back nearly half of the gains at the beginning of the week and closed at a low level. The daily line weakened again. The previous rebound of the double positive line was just a flash in the pan. The weak rebound does not exceed three trading days. On the third trading day of the daily line, the cross Yin line cooperates with the retracement of yesterday’s Yin line and closes at a low level. There is a possibility of breaking down the next day, and the daily line weakens again. In the short term, we will rely on the rebound high of 79.70 at the beginning of the week to be short on the critical point. The 4-hour chart shows a wave of negative candlestick retreat. Continuing the previous trading day’s high and falling, it fell below the middle track and weakened, and also broke the small-step shock rising low. The 4-hour chart turned bearish. The rebound at the beginning of the week was regarded as a correction to confirm the resistance, and it was just confirmed. The previous break through the resistance in the 79.80-80.0 area, and as it closed lower in late trading, today’s short-term trend will be further downward. On the 1-hour chart, there was a wave of continuous negative shocks and a weak decline, with consolidation instead of rebound. On the whole, today’s crude oil operation thinking is based on He Bosheng’s suggestion to mainly rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by rebounding from lows and longs. The top short-term focus will be on the first-line resistance of 77.5-78.0, and the short-term bottom will focus on the first-line support of 75.0-74.5.
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