Brent crude oil tumbled 4.4% yesterday as war premiums and worries about wider regional oil supplies appear to have dissipated, while global growth concerns from rising interest rates remain a dominant factor in the price discovery process.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Crude oil prices were trading around US$75.30 per barrel in Asia on Thursday (November 9). Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday to the lowest level in more than three months due to concerns about weakening demand for crude oil from various countries. U.S. crude inventories rose by nearly 12 million barrels last week, market sources said late Tuesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute, also weighing on oil prices. If confirmed, this would be the largest increase since February. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has postponed the release of weekly oil inventory data to November 15. The EIA said on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil production will be slightly lower than expected this year, but oil consumption will fall by 300,000 barrels per day, reversing its previous forecast of 100,000 barrels per day of growth. Weak demand worries investors. Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel for the first time in more than three months as a weak fuel demand outlook overshadowed concerns that a crisis in the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions. During the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, oil prices once soared to over $90/barrel. But now that supply from the Persian Gulf has so far been unaffected by the conflict, attention has turned to macroeconomic deterioration and weak oil fundamentals, with neither the U.S. nor Europe looking optimistic. Data from China, the world’s largest crude importer, showed its total exports of goods and services shrank faster than expected, adding to concerns about the outlook for energy demand. The fall in international oil prices is mainly due to the fact that overseas economic recovery is less than expected. For example, the U.S. unemployment rate has exceeded expectations in the past two months, and the new orders index has accelerated its contraction. At the same time, there are no signs of tightening on the supply side. In the long term, the supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, but in the short term there may be production cuts on the supply side, and there may be some support for prices.
Crude oil technical analysis:
Crude oil’s daily line fell out of inertia after falling below the previous low-level support, and continued to maintain a weak downward trend on the daily line. On the 4-hour level, the K-line is currently maintaining a good concussive downward trend close to the short-term moving average. The hourly level is now beginning to gradually stabilize and the technical form begins to recover slightly. There may also be a certain degree of rebound repair in the short-term trend. However, the overall weak technical form has not changed for the time being. Looking at the daily chart of crude oil, oil prices have continued to fall since the second rebound failed in late October, and eventually the trend formed a downward trend. Oil prices have hit the August low of 77.80. At present, short sellers are showing strong performance. Pay attention to whether there will be a clear rebound in this week’s period. If the mid-term trend of crude oil continues to be weak, the mid-term trend of crude oil will continue to decline towards 70. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil has experienced a weak adjustment and continues to fall to new highs. The rebound rhythm has no resistance to the downward trend. The short- and medium-term trend of crude oil is unanimously downward, and the bearish thinking remains unchanged during the day. On the whole, today’s short-term operation of crude oil is mainly based on the rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by the callback to lows and longs. The top short-term focus is on the 77.0-77.5 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 74.5-74.0 first-line support.
Disclaimer: Views shared are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, and you must be responsible for any profits or losses.