What news has recently affected the trend of gold and crude oil? Is the gold market outlook bullish or bearish?
In the Asian market on Wednesday (November 15), the U.S. dollar index was at 104.16, continuing the weak trend of overnight short selling. The U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) in October was unexpectedly weak, with a year-on-year increase of 4%, lower than the expected 4.1%. Amid heavy short selling of the U.S. dollar, gold held steady at $1,962 per ounce after rebounding overnight. Affected by CPI data, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply. The unexpected slowdown in inflation has bolstered bets that the Fed's aggressive rate-hiking cycle is now over and that the next step will be to cut interest rates next year. Bets on a "pivot" have increased next year, although Wall Street's rally could raise the risk of further easing in financial conditions and ultimately complicate the Fed's job. Fed swap rates indicate that the likelihood of the Fed raising rates again has dropped to almost zero, with markets pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut in July. The fall in U.S. Treasury yields is conducive to rising prices of safe-haven assets such as gold, while the fall in the U.S. dollar index reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. As a result, gold prices rose sharply on Tuesday.
Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: Housing inflation continues to rise, offsetting the decline in energy inflation in October. Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: Ironically, the more financial markets rise on hopes that the Federal Reserve will complete interest rate hikes, the more the market will undermine the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow economic growth and reduce inflation. Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: The core CPI annual rate has been the smallest since September 2021, indicating that although there is still some distance from the Fed's goal, at least some gradual progress has been made. Core inflation rose 4% year-on-year, the smallest increase since September 2021. We're still some way off the Fed's goals, but at least there's some incremental progress. Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: The housing category still brought upward pressure last month, but the rate of increase has slowed. While economists expect growth in this category to continue to slow, there is a risk it will start to heat up again next year.
Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: After the CPI data was released yesterday, the U.S. index fell sharply, and gold rebounded. The daily line closed positive, with a minimum of 1943.5 and a maximum of 1970.7, closing at 1963. Gold continued to rise, and the price of gold was under pressure below 1970 in the early morning. After the overnight CPI data was released, the U.S. index fell sharply and gold rebounded. At present, after a continuous rebound on the daily trend, the price touched near the early pressure zone and continued to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.
The 4-hour level trend temporarily maintained a narrow range after a slight adjustment. The K-line continued to run above the short-term moving average, and the short-term trend continued to maintain a slightly stronger trend. The current range compression on the hourly level trend is relatively small, and the short-term moving average is basically in a flat state. Pay attention to the short-term repair situation during the day. Gold bulls are very strong now, but there will be adjustments after the big rise. Just rely on the support of 1955 to go long today! The pressure above focuses on the 1970 position. Any pullback is an opportunity to go long!
But be careful, if the market rises again and does not break through 1970, we still have to pay attention. After all, the 1970 position is the pressure of the 4-hour Bollinger Upper Track. Only when it breaks through can gold continue to rise! Taken together, today's gold short-term operation thinking is Jin Shengfu's suggestion to mainly do longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. The top short-term focus will be on the 1980-1982 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 1953-1956 first-line support. All friends must keep up with the rhythm. . It is necessary to control positions and stop loss issues, set stop losses strictly, and never resist orders. The recent market turmoil has been relatively large, and opportunities and risks coexist. Control risks and gain profits.
Gold operation strategy reference:
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: Short-sell (buy down) two-tenths of the position in batches around 1980-1982, stop loss 6 points, target around 1970-1960, break the position and look at the 1955 line; (Recommendation is for reference only, investment is risky, enter the market Be careful!)
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy long (buy up) two-tenths positions in batches around 1953-1956, stop loss 6 points, target around 1965-1975, and look at the 1980 line if the position is broken; (Recommendations are for reference only, investment is risky, Be cautious when entering the market!)
