Today’s key financial data and events:
① 16:00 German IFO business climate index in October
② 16:00 Swiss ZEW Investor Confidence Index in October
③ 22:00 Annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in September
④ 22:00 The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision
⑤ 22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to October 20
⑥ 22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to October 20
⑦ 22:30 EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the United States for the week to October 20
⑧ 23:00 The Governor and Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada hold a press conference
⑨ At 01:00 the next day, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech
⑩ 04:35 the next day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the lecture
Gold market trend analysis;
During the Asian market on Wednesday (October 25), spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range, with the price trading around $1,974.42 per ounce. Although the overnight U.S. PMI data was stronger than market expectations and gold prices were under pressure for a time, they were still subject to bargain hunting. and support from safe-haven buying. U.S. economic data sent U.S. Treasury yields soaring as business activity improved in October, a headwind for gold ahead of U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data and U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data due out on Thursday and Friday. Expectations for data such as the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index released on Friday have increased. To this end, U.S. long-term bond yields steepened again on Tuesday. Gold, which is highly correlated with U.S. bond yields, has been severely suppressed by short sellers in a short period of time, resulting in a diving market. Gold prices have climbed about 9% in the past two weeks, hitting a five-month high of $1,997.09 on October 20, mainly due to concerns about the spread of war between Israel and the Islamist group Hamas and safe-haven capital inflows. But gold’s failure to rise sharply (this week) is a sign that safe-haven demand has begun to weaken and the market is beginning to learn to accept tensions in the Middle East. In other words, if the scale of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict does not escalate, the rush for gold as a safe haven may gradually calm down. The market’s ultimate focus will still be on the Fed’s interest rate trends and changes in U.S. bond yields. Of course, the key to influencing the Fed’s interest rate decision lies in economic data. To this end, the U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data to be released on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index to be released on Friday will attract the market’s focus, which may affect the Federal Reserve’s decisions this year and even next year. Interest rate outlook.
Gold technical analysis:
Gold’s Xiaoyin K-line corrected yesterday. After consolidation, it dropped to the 1953 line with a wave. In the late trading period, it steadily recovered its lost ground and closed above 1970 again. The daily line is the third trading day of the star K line consolidation and correction. The space is not too large. Although it has dipped, it still closed at a high level in late trading, which is a strong consolidation and correction move. Quickly explore and recover quickly. The short-term bullish trend remains unchanged. After the daily correction, it is still optimistic that it is gaining momentum. The 4-hour chart shows the second trend mentioned before. The strongly corrected market consolidated at the middle rail and rose directly. Yesterday, it paused and consolidated at the middle rail and then broke down to the lower rail to seek support. However, it continued after testing downward. Sex is not strong. There was a spatial retracement, but some losses were still recovered in late trading. In terms of time, it happened to have completed the consolidation and correction transition for three trading days. The short-term trend is expected to resume. Currently, the 1953 area has become the critical point for short-term bulls. If we hold on above, we will remain bullish. There may be repeated dips and rebounds, but the closing position at the end of the day determines the strength of the next day. It can break through, but it still needs to close above 1953, so that bulls can maintain further strength. In the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Band began to close, and currently rebounded from the lower track to the upper track and then came under slight pressure. In the short term, it has entered a contractionary shock. If the bull trend remains unchanged, the current shock is regarded as bulls gaining momentum. Taken together, in terms of today’s short-term operation of gold, Wang Tianfa suggested that the top should focus on the first-line resistance of 1980-1990 in the short term, and the bottom should focus on the first-line support of 1960-1950 in the short term.
Disclaimer: Views shared are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, and you must be responsible for any profits or losses.
