How to decide whether gold is long or short?
In early trading in the European market on Tuesday (November 14), spot gold maintained a slight decline during the day, with the price of gold currently located around $1,944 per ounce. Spot gold maintained a downbeat tone as investors turned away from safe-haven assets. Investors may get clearer clues from the United States on Tuesday, when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for October is released. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Thomas Jefferson spoke on the uncertainty facing the economy. Barkin, the 2024 FOMC voting committee member and Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, delivered a speech on the economic outlook. A hawkish speech is also expected, which will also put negative pressure on gold prices. Unless dovish remarks are made, gold prices are expected to continue to strengthen in the market this week, otherwise they will fall into volatility. As some institutions in the market expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates significantly next year, and the crisis of the U.S. shutdown has resurfaced, the market today ushered in two major events: the U.S. Congress voted on a temporary spending bill and the October U.S. inflation data CPI. To a certain extent, it attracted the return of buying. Current technical trends still dominate market sentiment.
Meanwhile, gold traders will get some clues from a Fed spokesman this week. Governor Lisa Cook failed to provide any headlines on monetary policy on Monday, but Tuesday’s agenda will be dominated by Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson and the New York Fed’s John Williams and Lisa Cook. On Wednesday, leaders of China and the United States met at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Economists at ANZ analyze the outlook for gold. They said central bank gold purchases remained strong and new political tensions would protect the downside for gold prices. In addition, the U.S. monetary tightening cycle has ended, the U.S. dollar is about to peak, and central bank gold purchases are expected to remain strong. Overall, the macroeconomic backdrop is turning to support gold, in addition to geopolitical risk-driven safe-haven demand and central bank purchases. Analysts added: The U.S. monetary tightening cycle is coming to an end and the dollar has peaked. This could lead to weaker U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, which would support investment demand for gold.
Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: From the daily line, gold experienced abnormal fluctuations in early trading yesterday. Some platforms were as low as around 1918, which is also an excellent long position, and some were as low as around 1931. After the recent change to winter time, the market was mostly after 11 pm. Gold rose in the middle of the night last night, reaching a maximum of around 1949. Gold dipped and rebounded yesterday. The daily small positive line closed, and the daily K-line entered the oscillating rhythm of yin and yang exchanges. , one yang and one yin cyclically fluctuated. Yesterday, the support in the 1933-1930 area was tested twice yesterday and began to rise steadily. As an important support for the daily retracement of the golden section point of 0.382, the daily line still failed to break through. Yesterday’s short-term chart due to It closed at a low level, and the daily line closed with a long lower shadow Yang line. According to yesterday’s trend, gold fell sharply to around 1918 under the influence of the bear trend, which is in line with the performance of the bears’ final test of lows. In this case, we can initially judge that gold will bottom out near 1918. Today, we still focus on the support strength of 1933-1930. If this level does not fall, we can try to see a steady rebound on the daily line. Otherwise, if it breaks below, it will fall further.
From the 4-hour cycle, after last Friday’s slow decline, gold closed the cross star at a low level and then closed the Yang line, and the K line closed above the lower Bollinger track. This indicates that the gold market is already poised for strong performance in the medium term. The 4-hour chart shows whether the trend is weak or not. After the bottom rail consolidated horizontally, it still rebounded and closed higher in late trading. The rebound power brought by technical support alone is limited, so gold encountered resistance when it rebounded to near the 1950 line overnight. Although it finally closed positive, whether it can continue to rise still needs to be judged based on fundamentals. If the fundamentals can bring positive impetus, gold is expected to rebound again, and may even start a new round of upward trend. However, if the fundamental performance remains sluggish, gold may still fluctuate within the 1950-30 range for some time.
In the 1-hour chart, a wave of dips in Lianyang broke the weak decline. Although it has not yet recovered the high point of 1965-1970, the daily line itself is also an important support area. Based on the above analysis, the gold market is expected to achieve a conversion between long and short trends this week. Since we are bullish on gold, the trading strategy should be mainly long. For small cycle trading points, we can perform long operations near the first support point of 1935 after the early rebound. Then, we will focus on the extension of the European and American markets to judge the overall performance of the gold market. In short, by periodically paying attention to the bottoming pattern of the daily line and the 4-hour cycle, we can better grasp the entry opportunities in the gold market. Taken together, today's gold short-term operation thinking is Jin Shengfu's suggestion to mainly do longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. The top short-term focus will be on the 1956-1965 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 1932-1935 first-line support. All friends must keep up with the rhythm. . It is necessary to control positions and stop loss issues, set stop losses strictly, and never resist orders. The recent market turmoil has been relatively large, and opportunities and risks coexist. Control risks and gain profits.
Disclaimer: Views shared are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, and you must be responsible for any profits or losses.