The international gold price rose slightly on Thursday (November 16), opening today at US$1,959.59/ounce, hitting a maximum of US$1,967.49/ounce, and a minimum of US$1,956.29/ounce, and is currently trading around US$1,965.
News analysis:
Weak CPI, easing expectations for rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and a weaker U.S. dollar boosted gold’s outlook. Data points to slowing U.S. inflation, which could signal the end of the Fed’s interest rate hikes. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in October and core inflation posted its smallest annual gain in two years, hinting at a softening of the inflation picture. Spot gold fell back after hitting a weekly high of $1,975.22 per ounce. The reason for its failure to hold above $1,970 was mainly due to the rebound in the U.S. dollar and the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields. This trading day will focus on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to November 11, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in November, and the monthly rate of the U.S. Import Price Index in October released in the evening.
Gold technical analysis:
Gold tested high yesterday and fell back. The daily closing line was Xiaoyinxing K-line. It rose first and then declined. The first rise was a continuation of the previous day’s rebound, and the fall was a return to shock. The daily line was suppressed by the mid-track and fell back. It closed lower. The current position is at the neutral value between the high and low points of the range 2008-1930. It is just 30-40 US dollars away from the high and low points. There is a lack of further news support in the short term, and it is difficult to have a breakthrough unilateral market in terms of technology. There is a back and forth. See-sawing is the norm, and one side is sought in the oscillating see-sawing.
Looking at the daily chart of gold, gold faces resistance near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1,973 per ounce, and bulls need to decisively break through this level to pave the way for further gains. As long as gold prices remain below the aforementioned resistance, the uptrend appears unstable. On the downside, the daily chart shows important support near $1,950 an ounce. Below this, the 55-, 100- and 200-day moving averages will provide support between $1,935/oz and $1,925/oz. A break below the above range would mean gold prices will weaken further and could test $1,900 an ounce.
On the 4-hour chart, gold prices remain above the 20-period SMA, suggesting upside potential. However, technical indicators are giving mixed signals. The relative strength index (RSI) is trending downward, the momentum indicator is flattening, and the MACD indicator shows limited potential. If the price of gold falls below $1,955 per ounce, it will be vulnerable in the short term. If it breaks through $1,971 per ounce, gold prices will test the key resistance level of $1,975 per ounce; once it breaks through the above resistance, gold prices will have room to rebound further. In the first half of the week, gold fluctuated every day in Asia and Europe, and then rose in the U.S. market. On Wednesday, the U.S. market turned around due to the release of data. Today, the Asian and European markets continue to be bearish.
Gold operation suggestions: It is recommended to short the gold above the current price around 65, stop loss 1974, and target 1950-45 (recommendation is for reference only)
Disclaimer: Views shared are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risks, and you must be responsible for any profits or losses.
