1. U.S. non-agricultural data exceeded expectations
(1) The non-agricultural employment population in the United States increased by 253,000 after seasonal adjustment in April, an increase of 180,000 more than expected, and the previous value was revised down from 236,000 to 165,000, the smallest increase since December 2022.
(2) The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.4% in April, lower than the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 3.5%, the lowest since January this year.
(3) The annual rate of average hourly wages in the United States in April recorded 4.4%, exceeding the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2%; the monthly rate recorded 0.5%, exceeding the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.3%.
2. Fed officials hawk
(1) St. Louis Fed President Bullard said he supports the decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points last week because inflation remains high. He believes the Fed can still achieve a soft landing and that rumors of an imminent collapse are overblown.
(2) In addition, Bullard played down the impact of recent pressure on the banking industry, saying that this pressure is manageable. He also said a “majority” on the committee wanted to raise rates above 5 percent.
(3) He will keep an open mind and be willing to assess economic data before deciding what measures to support in June, but needs to see a “meaningful decline in inflation” to be convinced that no further rate hikes are necessary.
3. Goolsbee, the dove of the Federal Reserve and the president of the Chicago Fed, said that it is too early to expect an interest rate hike in June, and the state of the US banking industry must make people think twice.
4. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that President Biden is willing to negotiate alone on spending priorities; the U.S. may default as early as June 1.
5. World Health Organization: The new crown epidemic no longer constitutes a “public health emergency of international concern”
6. The Sudan Rapid Support Forces announced the extension of the ceasefire for 72 hours starting from the 5th. Its leaders confirmed their participation in the Jeddah Y talks, hoping that the talks would “achieve the expected goals” and provide safe passage for civilians.
MARKET VIEWPOINTS
FX Empire analyst Aaron Hill
Gold set a new year-to-date high last week, reaching as high as $2,067 (note: the initial quotations on different platforms are inconsistent), which is only a short distance away from the historical high of $2,075. Although there may be a bearish divergence in the weekly RSI, gold remains above the weekly support at $1988, and the overall trend is still in favor of the bulls.
On the daily bar chart, the price remains within an extended uptrend channel that began at $1934 and $2009. If this channel support is broken, then support will be seen at $1949, which is also close to the 50-day SMA at $1952 and then the long-term channel support extending from the low of $1616. On the upside, gold resistance is at $2,075.
In the short term, due to the stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, there was a big negative line in the 1-hour chart of gold on Friday. Gold subsequently rebounded from the $2,000 mark. At present, the 1-hour level resistance is at $2022 and $2034, and if the price of gold falls below $2000, it may find support from the low of $1969.
It may be difficult for gold to choose a direction this week. On the one hand, at the 1-hour level, the price of gold may remain above $2,000, with a resistance range of $2022-2034, because the weekly and daily charts still maintain a clear upward trend. On the other hand, gold at the daily level may fall to the lower track of the above-mentioned channel, which is consistent with the upward trend on the 1-hour level. This means that gold may briefly break below $2,000 before breaking out of the 1-hour-level uptrend.
Edward Mova, Senior Market Analyst, OANDA
Concerns about the banking sector appeared to have receded on Friday, but that doesn’t mean they’re gone entirely. Overall risks remain high and credit conditions will continue to tighten. The risk will resurface as U.S. President Joe Biden holds talks on the debt ceiling.
It may be challenging for gold to hit another record high in the short term, but another new high is very likely. The key support level for gold is currently at $1990, and the first resistance level may be at $2040. The Fed is now done (raising rates) and the June meeting is likely to leave rates unchanged. The main drivers for gold going forward will be the debt ceiling, banking concerns and recession risk.
GAIN Capital analyst Michael Boutros
Gold surged to an all-time high of $2,079 last week following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, but closed the week sharply lower on the back of strong U.S. data on Friday. Although from a structural point of view, the trend of gold is still improving, but due to technical deviations, the further rise of gold has been seriously hindered.
Last week’s gold trend showed that the price of gold failed to try to reach a new record high, closing below $2035, once again threatening the upward momentum of gold. Horizontal support is at the January high of $1959, and further support is at $1926. It is expected that the decline in gold prices will stop at this level. At that time, we can pay attention to the reversal signal. But if gold prices fail to stabilize at this level, then the next The target will look at between 1891-1903 dollars.
The first resistance level is at $2,035, and it needs to break through $2,075 or $2,079 to mean that there is more room for growth. The goal is to look at the 75% parallel line level in the downward trend channel in 2022, which is currently about $2,100, and then The 100% parallel level of the aforementioned channel is currently around $2149.
Gold has been deeply divergent in its test of all-time highs. After testing these highs last time in 2020 and 2022, the price fell by 1.93% and 3.8%, respectively, with both eventually falling more than 19%. From a trading standpoint, this is a good area to reduce long positions or raise protective stops, if gold moves higher during this time, a close above $2075 would be needed to mark a resumption of the rally stop Should improve above the uptrend line into 2022.
Edward Gardner, commodities economist at Capital Economics
The gold market does not face any serious hurdles until the US debt ceiling issues and banking turmoil are resolved. Concerns over banks and the U.S. debt ceiling will keep gold prices at record highs in the coming months. However, once those concerns subside, longer-term headwinds will come into play.
Our new gauge of financial stress in advanced economies suggests that gold prices are benefiting from safe-haven demand linked to banking problems. The U.S. Congress is currently deadlocked over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, raising the risk of a default before June 1. In 2011, the United States reached its debt ceiling on May 16, and after much debate, legislation to raise the debt ceiling was passed on August 1. On the same day, the price of gold rose sharply by 9% from the previous month, which may be partly due to concerns about the financial situation of the US government. The same concerns have recently resurfaced. Our bank expects that these issues may plague the market in the next few months, so that the price of gold will remain near $2,000.
