It seems that between November 2021 and December 2022, is the probability of A shares reaching 5,000 points even greater? Will 2022 be a seven-year bull market?
1. Why does everyone say that the real bull market will appear in 2022?
We all know that since 1994, there has been a stock market crash every seven years, that is, the peak of the bull market. In 1994, 2001 and 2008, the 6124 points in the Olympic years were impressive to everyone. Counting from 2015, the next time is 2022.
According to this law, the top of the big bull market will appear in 2022, followed by the stock market crash. This means that before 2022, there is a high probability of a bull market.
There is no doubt that the stock market is cyclical, but we can find that, on the whole, the general trend is upward, and the stock market bull market with a record high may be on its way.
The highest point in 2007 was 6124, the highest point in 2015 was 5178, and the highest point in 2021 was more than 3730. Since the end of 2018, this round of bull market trend has been going on for two and a half years. From the lowest 2440 to the present, the increase has actually increased by more than 50%. It is regarded as a slow bull. It has reached a critical moment. Waves, difficult to ship.
·In fact, the stock market is a cycle to another cycle, the bulls and bears alternate. Therefore, this round of bull market is not over. The monthly bull trend is not over.
It is often obvious that in general, another record high will be reached, probably around 2022.
However, let’s not forget that every big market is marked by a special event. Looking back at the special events of Sino-US trade in the past two years, although the stock market is strong, it does not belong to the overall market. On the contrary, it happens to be a structural market.
Although we have revised and improved the Securities Law, we are still in the stage of institutional adjustment. In addition to the addition of the Beijing Stock Exchange, we are currently in a critical stage of economic transformation and upgrading. Naturally, the stock market is mainly based on stability, and only when the stock market is completed. Only after transformation and upgrading can an overall big market be formed.
Therefore, although we hope that stocks can rise, it is more in the interests of shareholders than listed companies with stable operation and stable profits, rather than excessive fluctuations in stock prices.
2. Why does a bull-bear cycle exist?
Here, I introduce the famous so-called “Maokeng Theorem” in the capital market. The conclusion is that as the stock price accumulates and trades in the original price range, the proportion of long-term positions will increase, while the short-term positions will be more and more crowded out. The stock price will inevitably rise.
