The contributors to CryptoQuant believe that Bitcoin is currently a no-brainer investment for would-be buyers. Bitcoin (BTC) will face a “cycle bottom” this year, possibly falling more than 50% from current levels, the study said.
In a June 1 Twitter post, Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicted that 2022 would be the year Bitcoin “capitulates.”
Bitcoin now has ‘best 3-year ROI ever’
According to the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s half-price cycle, this year should be the bearish loser of the current four-year cycle, Venturefounder wrote.
Just like 2018 and its bear market, BTC/USD should find its own macro bottom sometime in 2022, which could be between $14,000 and $21,000 if you count the previous decline from all-time highs.
“With 670 days until the next Bitcoin halving, we are on time for Bitcoin’s performance compared to past cycles,” one tweet explained:
“In the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate over the next 6 months and hit a cycle bottom ($14-21k), then cut $2.8-40k for most of 2023 to the next It’s down to ~$40k again at half price.”
Although such a prediction is not good news, it is not without precedent. After hitting $3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed to recover to $13,800 seven months later before reversing the slide again, bottoming out at a March 2020 low of $3,600.
Even the local top price in 2019 was not enough to beat the all-time high of $20,000 set in December 2017.
Venturefounder believes that this level could once again become a feature of spot price charts. Still, those willing to ride the waves and invest (even now) will be on the right side of history.
“In other words, buying Bitcoin is the best option between now and the next 6-12 months. This is probably the best 3-year ROI ever,” he added:
“We may not be at a cycle bottom, but we are in the range of a BTC cycle bottom. That’s the best thing you can do when you’re navigating a market cycle.”
The bottom forecast keeps appearing
Meanwhile, others have estimated that the minimum price could be at or near $14,000.
That price would be down about 80% from its current all-time high of $69,000, corresponding to the previous cycle’s low percentage point.
The current price of around $31,000 is a relatively small drop, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
Last month, fellow analyst Rekt Capital estimated a potential price target of $15,500 once BTC/USD breaks below its 200-week moving average.
Sellers may have difficulty pushing the market this low. MicroStrategy, which owns the treasury of the largest bitcoin enterprise, has promised to buy bitcoin as long as it approaches the $20,000 mark.
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, has also confirmed that he is interested in $20,000 in bitcoin.
