Gold COT Report
Spot gold continued to rise last Friday, and the U.S. market was finally suppressed at 1930. At present, the whole has returned to the previous range of 1915-1930, and option funds have also seen long and short competition at the upper and lower edges of the above range, so focus on the upper and lower ranges during the day. Breakthrough situation along the edge. Specifically, call option funds added 92 bets in the 1932-1942 range, which will constitute the main target area after breaking through 1930. The bullish funds reduced their bets by 234 lots near the early non-agricultural high of 1947, which became the extreme resistance during the day.
On the downside, the lower edge of the range near 1917 is an important support during the day. If it breaks below, it may look back to the 1907-1912 position of short bets. However, bulls increased their bets by nearly 150 lots from 1897 to 1902, limiting the room for gold to fall sharply during the day.
Silver COT Report
Last Friday, after silver stepped back to the bottom of the previous market, the rebound accelerated, but the final increase stopped at 23.15. Judging from options data, there are still some bullish funds that continue to bet on a rebound in silver, and silver may still have momentum to rise in the short term. However, the emergence of call options reduction of 237 lots near 2325 may first constitute the first resistance to silver’s further rebound. It needs to stabilize here before looking towards the 23.5 line where bulls are betting, and this is also the middle track of the daily Bollinger Bands, which is expected to pose some resistance. The intraday extreme target is seen at 23.75.
In the downward direction, although some short sellers are betting that the silver price will fall back, the extent is relatively limited. Therefore, the first support for the fall is also the target. You can first focus on 23, and then the support 22.8, which is transformed from the lower edge of the previous low shock range. The important support was seen on the uptrend last Friday. The market started to rise at the 22.65 line.
Crude Oil COT Report
Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that Russia and Saudi Arabia’s reduction measures have caused a large supply shortage in the crude oil market, and the crude oil market will have a gap of 3 million barrels per day in the next quarter. WTI crude oil has risen nearly 30% since June. Although the daily RSI is already overbought, there is currently no reversal signal. From the perspective of options changes, the next resistance area that needs to be focused on is $93-93.5. The exit of call options in this area may imply the need for some bulls to make profits and leave the market, thereby forming resistance to the rising market. After a breakthrough, it is expected to reach 95 target position. On the other hand, support first focuses on $90-90.5. Options changes in this area hint at the defensive willingness of the bulls. If it breaks below, it may trigger a wave of short-term selling, with the possibility of looking down to 89 or even 88.
EUR COT Report
Last Friday, the U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September unexpectedly fell short of expectations, and the U.S. dollar fell. Coupled with ECB officials downplaying market speculation that they had completed interest rate hikes, the euro’s decline against the U.S. dollar temporarily stopped and rebounded from a low of 1.0632. . However, given the differences in monetary policy and economic outlook between the euro zone and the United States, it may not be time for the euro to reverse its decline against the dollar. Combined with the changes in options, 1.0685 shows obvious signs of long and short competition. It is expected to be the first key resistance level that needs to be overcome in the European and American rebound. After breaking through, the next resistance area will be 1.0735-1.0760. On the other hand, support first focuses on 1.0635, which is also a support level formed by long and short competition. If it falls below, there is a risk of looking down to 1.0535-1.0560. In addition, it is worth noting that the addition of thousands of put options at 1.0660 for many consecutive days is expected to be the hedging needs of institutions and has limited impact on the short-term market, but it reflects the bearish sentiment of the market.
GBP COT Report
Affected by the downward trend of the Bank of England’s terminal interest rate priced in by the market, the pound and US dollar fell further last Friday, falling below the 1.24 integer mark. They only rebounded slightly during the Asian session today and are currently trading around 1.2395. There was little overall change in options today, indicating that funds may take more of a wait-and-see attitude. However, put options have also been added to the position. Although the point of adding positions is far away from the current price, it also implies that the pound and the United States may fall further. If GBP/USD fails to hold the support below 1.2350-1.2375, it is likely to fall further and look towards the short target of 1.23. On the other hand, if the pound US dollar breaks through the important early resistance level of 1.2450, it is possible to continue the rebound, first looking at the integer mark of 1.25.
Australian dollar COT Report
As mentioned in our report, the sentiment in Australia and the United States on Friday was more to the downside. Although Australia and the United States rebounded as high as 0.6475, they later fell back under pressure and closed near the daily Bollinger Band middle track of 0.6425. In today’s Asian session, Australia and the United States rebounded slightly and are currently trading around 0.6440. Options changes show that the put options at 0.6425-0.65 above the current price of Australia and the United States have significantly increased their positions, suggesting that the sentiment of Australia and the United States today is more biased towards the downside, and is also expected to bring resistance to the rebound of the pound and the United States. If Australia and the United States fail to break through this resistance level, it may fall back again and test the lower support level of 0.630.6350. On the other hand, if Australia and the United States rise above this resistance level, it is possible to continue the rebound and look towards the upper integer resistance level of 0.66.
