Gold COT Report
On Monday, spot gold broke through the upper edge of the shock range of 1930 in the middle of the night and then reached around 1935, and finally closed on the middle track of the daily Bollinger Bands. However, given that gold pulled up in the second half of the night when trading volume was low, and was overbought at the hourly level, it made a correction this morning. Judging from options data, although bearish funds below the current price have retreated in large areas and the overall bearish sentiment has decreased, bullish funds near the current price mainly leave the market, so gold may face resistance first if it continues to rise. Specifically, the number of call options decreased by 78 hands in the 1937-1942 range, forming the first resistance area during the day. Only by stabilizing here and going up will it be possible to look towards the early non-agricultural high of 1947. The target above the daily limit was seen from 1957 to 1962.
On the downside, 1930, the upper edge of yesterday’s shock range, became the first support for gold, while bearish funds reduced their holdings by more than 200 lots from 1917 to 1922, which also weakened the possibility of a sharp fall in gold prices during the day. Therefore, the support strength of these two positions can be mainly focused on.
Silver COT Report
On Monday, silver prices continued to rebound, with the rally finally ending at 23.3, the 38.2% retracement of the downtrend since the end of August. Judging from the current options data, there are still some long capital bets that continue to rebound, but there are no aggressive short bets below, and the overall sentiment is still slightly positive. However, the decrease in bullish funds near the current price is expected to constitute resistance first, that is, 81 call options were reduced near 23.25. It needs to break through here to further look towards the resistance of 22.5-22.6, the middle track of the daily Bollinger Bands. On the downside, the number of put options here at 23 is reduced by 22 lots, which will form support first. Secondly, there is a small amount of short bets on the 22.8 target, but the number of downward bets has been significantly reduced. In addition, this is the lower edge of the previous low shock range, so there is also a certain degree of support here, and the space for silver to fall continues to be limited.
Crude Oil COT Report
WTI crude oil is approaching the month change, and the quotations on many trading desks have been changed to the price of the November contract. The last transaction of the October contract will be completed at 2:30 on September 21. On Monday, U.S. WTI crude oil fell back to 90.7 and continued its gains, breaking through the high resistance of 92. Judging from the latest options changes, call options below 92 have mostly left the market, which may be due to some bulls taking profits. However, there are still call options and put options synchronously adding positions at the 90 integer level, which is expected to form a key support level in the near future. , breaking the position may trigger short-term selling, and it is possible to see 89 or even 88. On the other hand, call options continue to increase positions above 92, and put option bets also extend to the level of 96. In the short term, we can focus on the resistance level of 93. Oil prices may have entered the area where short sellers have begun to gamble for reversal, but there is currently no obvious reversal signal, and the fundamentals remain bullish. Individual traders need to remain cautious.
EUR COT Report
There are many central bank interest rate decisions this week, and the most eye-catching is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve interest rate decision early Thursday morning. Prior to this, the U.S. dollar index was blocked at the key resistance area, and the decline in Europe and the United States was suspended. On Monday, the US market broke through 1.0685 and was at the pressure level, but it was still blocked by the 1.07 integer mark. Judging from the latest options changes, 1.0685 is where call options increase positions and put options leave the market. At the same time, this is also where the U.S. market broke out on Monday. It is expected to be more critical in the short term. If it falls below, it may break the short-term momentum of Europe and the United States and provide support. Let’s first look back at Monday’s shock low of 1.0655. The changes in options show that the willingness to bet on call options and put options below 1.0660 is not strong. In addition, the put options at 1.0560 have dropped sharply. Therefore, the short-term downward momentum in Europe and the United States is expected to be limited. During the day Focus on the support defense in the 1.0655-1.0660 area.
GBP COT Report
As mentioned in our report, the pound and the United States may have taken a more wait-and-see attitude yesterday, closing out a doji pattern. But this does not mean a reversal of the trend, and it may be one of the signals that the short-term decline is slowing down. In today’s Asian session, the pound and the United States weakened slightly and are currently trading around 1.2375. Changes in options show that funds use 1.24 as the dividing point to increase their positions in call options above it and put options below it. Therefore, the resistance level of 1.24 needs to be focused on. Today, both long and short options have increased their positions equally, and the trend may be more volatile. If GBP/USD fails to break through the resistance level of 1.24, focus on the short target below 1.23-1.2375. On the other hand, if GBP/USD breaks through 1.24, focus on the important early resistance level of 1.2450, and if it breaks through further, focus on the bull target of 1.25.
Australian dollar COT Report
Australia and the United States also closed a cross-star-like K-line yesterday and continued to stick to the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the early rebound trend could not be further continued. In today’s Asian session, Australia and the United States fell slightly and are currently trading around 0.6430. Options changes show that funds have significantly increased their positions in call options at 0.6425-065. Yesterday, 1,004 new put options were added to this position, but today, 1,082 new call options were added, further indicating that this is the location where funds focus. The position of funds adding positions today indicates that today’s sentiment in Australia and the United States may be more inclined to the upward trend.
If AUD falls below the lower limit of this range at 0.6425 and below the support at 0.64, it is possible that the decline will resume and look toward short targets.
0.63-0.6325. On the other hand, if the Australian and American rebound breaks through the resistance level of 0.65, it is possible to continue the rebound trend and look towards the upper bull target of 0.655-0.6575.
