1. Market review:. Spot gold fluctuated and closed higher last Friday, reaching a high of $1861.90 per ounce in the day, then pared back some of the gains, and finally closed up 0.16% at $1852.73 per ounce; spot silver rose first and then fell, and finally fell slightly It closed up 0.49% at $22.1 an ounce.
2. The core PCE price index of the United States in April was 4.9%, which was in line with expectations. Compared with the 5.2% increase in March, the pace of price increases slowed down; the monthly rate of personal spending in April was 0.9%, higher than market expectations. .
3. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest quarterly financial report, as of the end of March, the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) brought it $330 billion as of the end of March due to the impact of interest rate hikes. Unrealised losses (book losses).
4. According to Turkish state media, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that talks with Finland and Sweden did not reach the expected level and that Turkey could not agree to “sponsor terrorism” countries to join NATO.
5. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have complete control over the strategically important city of Donetsk, Bonliman. On the 28th local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian army and the Donetsk and Luhansk armed forces have fully controlled the strategically important town of Bonliman in the Donetsk region. However, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said that the Ukrainian army is still fighting fiercely in Bonliman. According to market news, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, there were several loud explosions.
6. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on the issue of joining the EU that if European leaders do not want to see Ukraine in the EU, they should clearly inform this. He himself opposes any alternative for Ukraine to join the EU.
1. The U.S. economy is still doing well, and the PCE suggests that the year-over-year price peak may have already occurred. Gold prices have strengthened recently, mainly as concerns over slowing economic growth have led some traders to wonder if the Federal Reserve really wants to tighten significantly enough to enter a recession.
2. A weaker U.S. dollar and falling U.S. bond yields could help gold solidly break above 1,850 this week, though risk sentiment among stock market investors will be an uncertain factor. The stock market is currently entering a vicious short-covering rally, leading to limited panic over a recession, a stock market crash, or a Fed rate hike.
3. The Fed will stick to its plan to some extent, though uncertainty over what will happen after the next two rate hikes is reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield . fall back.
4. Gold fails to bounce back amid weaker dollar
The most worrisome thing about gold’s moves last Friday was that gold actually ended the day lower despite a broad dollar weakness and a rebound in risk assets. It has been unable to bounce back on a weaker dollar, an ominous sign that the risk of a downside washout for the bulls is now increasing. The gold support level is expected to be at 1840, and then at 1836. If it falls below, a small number of bulls may choose to surrender and look back at 1780. The resistance is seen at 1860, 1870 and the 100-day moving average at 1886.
5. The market has little demand for gold in the current environment
The minutes of the Fed’s May meeting did not really reveal more new information, and from the trend of gold last week, there is not much demand for gold when risk appetite is rising again and other assets are rising strongly. In addition, the slightly weaker dollar did not provide any support for gold. In recent trading days, gold ETFs have seen outflows again, which means that gold lacks momentum from investors.
