Home » Commitment Of Traders Report » Commitment of Traders Report: Dovish remarks ignite gold gains, hold support and are expected to maintain an upward trend- Dec 1st, 2022
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Commitment of Traders Report: Dovish remarks ignite gold gains, hold support and are expected to maintain an upward trend- Dec 1st, 2022

Dovish remarks ignite gold gains, hold support and are expected to maintain an upward trend

Gold COT Report

Powell confirmed that the interest rate hike will be slowed down in December. Dovish remarks boosted gold’s surge, and options also took advantage of the trend to increase bullish bets at multiple points above. 1792 (1800 futures price) is still a popular long target. The only downside is that the total open interest is still declining, and medium and long-term funds may not yet enter the market in large numbers. In the short term, gold has approached the previous midline resistance of 1785-1795, which also includes the long target of 1792, which is optimistic about options. You can pay attention to the situation of the entire range within the day. Since short-term funds may still dominate the market, it is not ruled out that there may be a correction before and after the US market, but as long as the support around 1763-1766 and 1757 does not fall below, the upward pattern should continue to be maintained.

Silver COT Report

Silver and gold went up at the same time, and have now stood above the 22 mark. After a short step back in today’s Asian market, they are still stable at high levels. In addition, the positions and trading volume of futures have increased, and the sentiment on the capital side is much more positive than that of gold. Today, silver may outperform gold.

Specifically, the sub-market retracement did not break through 22.25, and the support here may become stronger. The upper part near 22.5 is the previous retracement position, and it is also the place where call options increase positions. The chances of testing within the day are relatively high, but after entering the US market Trading is relatively active, and silver may have a certain correction in the short term. At that time, you can pay attention to the performance of supports such as 22.08-22.25 and 21.8-21.9.

Crude Oil COT Report

Affected by the adjustment of epidemic control measures in Asia, market sentiment was boosted, driving oil prices upward. However, judging from the changes in options, the bullish sentiment at the far-end point is strong, and the funds near the current price seem not to be optimistic about continuing to rise. A large number of short positions may increase the downside risk. At present, the main disturbance factor is still the OPEC meeting.

The bulls above the current price are mainly leaving the market, the short-term action may weaken, and the bulls’ target is 84. From the perspective of order flow, this is also one of the resistance levels. Only when crude oil breaks through and stabilizes is it expected to boost the bulls’ sentiment again. A large number of bulls entering the market may expand the upward momentum. On the other hand, focus on the 80 support level below, and a short-term break may expand the downward momentum, and the bears will concentrate on betting on the 75 and 70 levels.

EUR COT Report

The euro reproduced the roller coaster market in the U.S. market yesterday, and finally rebounded above 1.04 again under the influence of Powell’s dovish speech; on the daily line, the key resistance of 1.04 has been tested many times, and it seems that the volatility has narrowed at present, and it also Out of the convergence pattern of the ascending triangle, in the short term, if the non-agricultural data is upset tomorrow night, Europe and the United States may break out of the market.

From the perspective of option distribution, long funds increased their positions at the top yesterday, but short positions continued to increase their bets at the bottom, and the direction of funds is unclear for the time being. It can be seen from the options that the bearish power in the downward direction has strengthened, and 1.04 will be the target for the fall. If it falls below, Europe and the United States may look at the short target 1.035 and 1.03. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at 1.03.

In the upward direction, 1.045 will be the target of the rebound, and then 1.05 will be the target of the next rebound if both long and short sides compete.

GBP COT Report

The trend of the pound still follows the fluctuations of the dollar. After falling to around 1.19 in the U.S. market, it rebounded sharply under strong support and is now approaching the recent long target of 1.21. From the daily trend, the bulls seem to regain their advantage, as long as the pound does not fall further Back below 1.205, the short-term rebound momentum should be maintained.

From the perspective of option distribution, the long and short sides basically focus on increasing positions, of which 1.21 will be the rebound target, and 1.215, both long and short, will enter the market, which will be the next rebound target; if both rise above, it is recommended to pay attention to 1.22 The resistance is suppressed, and the bull’s target and resistance is located at 1.23.

In the direction of going to the countryside, 1.205 will be the target for the fall. If it falls below, the pound and the dollar may look at the long target of 1.20, and then the support will be 1.195, which is intensively betting on call options.

Australian dollar COT Report

Affected by the double boost of the epidemic policy regulation and the downturn of the US dollar, Australia and the United States directly came above the weekly resistance of 0.678-0.68. After breaking through the strong resistance, there may be a risk of stepping back. Judging from the changes in options, the short sentiment is still high, and the bets are concentrated below 0.68. There is no obvious sign of long and short bets in the current trading range of the Australian dollar.

The stock of put options above 0.69 may form a certain resistance. If the Australian dollar maintains its upward trend, we can further pay attention to the 0.7 mark. On the other hand, continue to pay attention to whether it will step back on the key support of 0.68 within the day. If the Australian dollar loses its support, the put options with intensive bets below may expand its downward momentum, and there is a risk of returning to the lower trading range.

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